Week 14 Hangover and Updated Efficiency

Week 14 Hangover

As promised, I wanted to say what I got right and what I got wrong from my previous post that can be found here.

Cowboy’s offense versus Giant’s defense 

Although I got the prediction wrong, I think my reasoning was correct. What my efficiency numbers do not do well is understand the likelihood of an explosive play. So if you gain 5 yards on 3rd and 5 that is the same as gaining 25 yards on 3rd and 5. I am currently trying to find a way to change this, but it seems the Giant’s offense is built around ODBJ making hugely explosive plays a couple of times a game. Take out the 61 yard TD pass to Odell and Eli was 16/27 for 132 yards. This matchup didn’t disappoint and it seems the formula to beat the Cowboys is a crazy good defense with a serviceable offense.

Baltimore at New England

I  picked this one right and got the logic correct again, but I have to admit I expected the game to be closer and the score to be lower.  The gameplan from NE was particularly interesting. To manufacture a run they did a few receiver sweeps and ran outside the tackles a good bit. The final stat line is a little misleading because the Patriots got up big relatively early in the game and thus ran the ball more, but they did what I thought they might do by sticking to the passing game against this defense.

Washington’s offense versus Philadelphia’s defense

This game was weird. I got the pick wrong here, but in the first half of this game, the Eagles should have been up big. Their defense did a great job against this offense for most of the game, but their offense kept shooting itself in the foot. This game also illustrated that finding a way to try to predict yardage gains and not simply the binomial 0/1 success/fail of plays is really important.

Atlanta’s defense versus LA’s offense

I got this very wrong and couldn’t be happier about it. I was elated to see the Falcon’s defense destroy this Ram’s offense. Outside of the first drive and the last quarter, the Rams were hardly able to move the ball. I am still cautious about the Falcon’s defense. I think Vic Beasley Jr. has been insanely good, but I worry about te secondary. Deion Jones has looked very rangy over the middle of the field as of late, but I still worry about the outside talent and all of the “deep 3” in the deep 3 zone concept. With Trufant out, teams can really attack this team deep.

Why are the Raiders and Chiefs good?

Well, I think the short answer to this is that they are inefficient, but thrive in the extreme parts of the game. What I mean by this is big plays and turnovers for the Raiders and Chiefs respectively. I do want to say that I have little faith in the ability of the Raider’s offensive coordinator. From the efficiency statistics in my previous post, it was clear that the Chiefs were very bad at defending the run. From a not using my statistics, but looking at the game, they were 40% run versus 60% pass and 4.7 yards per rush versus 2.9 yards per pass attempt. So what were the Raiders doing? Their QB has a jacked pinkie on this throwing hand and it was 12 degrees Farenheight. This is one of the scenarios where I feel like the coach believes their team is so good they focus on their strength instead of the other team’s weakness. Focusing on your opponent’s weakness is the way of good football coaches and the Sith.

Season Pick Stats

Logic: 4/5

Outcome: 2/4 (didn’t pick the RAI/KAN game)

 

Updated Efficiency

These numbers will reflect through week 14.

ovr_eff_2016wk14

off_eff_2016wk14

def_eff_2016wk14

 

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